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How I think about how to think about what’s next
It's messy, but it works
Quinn Emmett
October 27, 2023
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Welcome back.
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Next up: 50k.
Today: How I think about how to think about what’s next
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HOW I THINK ABOUT TOMORROW
One big reason I write these essays is so I can work out for myself what the facts on the ground say about what’s next, knowing full well that most efforts to predict even the near future will fail (I will never ever be as accurate as I was here on March 2 2020).
Basically — what’s the near-term product of (all the inputs or shocks we’re experiencing right now) x (people affected)?
And then what comes after that?
There are two practical questions related to these: how accurate are the answers, and how far out can we predict and adjust for them?
Well, it depends, and it depends.
Before we dive into how I try to think about them, let’s take a look around.
If it feels a little bit like everything is chaos right now, you’re not alone. Here is a very incomplete list of what’s on my mind just this morning:
Ukraine
Israel, Palestine, Hezbollah, Iran, China
Solar and wind
India growth and nationalism
Africa growth and coups
Antarctica ice
US economy
Acapulco
The 2023 elections
The 2024 elections
Fertilizers
AI disinformation
Old fashioned disinformation
Gas disinformation
South American heat
Fossil fuel subsidies
Endless shootings
EV charging
The care economy
Global debt
Vaccine inequity/hesitancy
US home ownership affordability
Chinese EV’s
Google on trial
Hydrogen
Canadian wildfires
Educational inequality
Toyota’s mythical solid-state batteries
UK clean energy pullback
Immigration everywhere, deportations
El Niño
Rio Negro water levels
Malaria vaccines/spreading
Auto union strike
US House of Representatives...issues
Colorado River water rights negotiations
Chevron-Hess
1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Deluxe Edition)
Great, so. It’s a lot.
It’s always been a lot, of course, but globalism, the EU, social networks, food and fossil fuels (and where they intersect, like fertilizers), climate change, Xi, Putin, Trump, Netanyahu, TSMC, Brexit, the transition away from fossil fuels, inflation, and COVID have reshaped, tied together, and then hastily untied many of the fundamental constructs of the last four decades.
Which is why you hear a lot now about the polycris(es), a multipolar world, etc.
So how do I usually try to understand these? Besides Klonopin or gummies?
Well, I find it’s helpful to start with two fundamental questions:
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